BE aware of the hidden danger in the “easy” Senate voting method, warns psephologist Lex Stewart, who has been approached by Cairns News to comment on the preferential voting system.
If you are among the 91% who do not want to vote for the Greens, then please read on, because your vote can, without you realising it, assist the Greens.
The ballot paper (for the Senate voting method from 2016) specifies that you vote:
– either by numbering 1 to at least 6 boxes /.‘above the line’ (ATL)
– or by numbering 1 to at least 12 boxes ‘below the line’ (BTL).
“Many voters do the easy thing and vote 1 to only 6 ATL not realising that that type of vote favours the Greens, helping them to get a Senate seat, even though you did not mention the Greens, nor want to help them,” says Mr Stewart.
“This is because the new voting method allows for a senator to be elected on less than a full quota, and also creates ‘exhaustion’ of votes. The old method required every Senator to get a full quota (14.3%), but the new method gives an advantage to Greens, because Senators can get in on less than a quota.”
He says that under the old method, the Greens had to get enough preferences to get them up from their usual circa 9% of the votes (which is 0.63 of a quota) so as to achieve a full quota of 14.3%.
“However this new method was designed by the Greens, and was for years advocated by the Greens, but by nobody else, until PM Malcolm Turnbull rammed it through Parliament,” says Mr Stewart.
“Hansard shows that the ALP was furiously against this new method, because they understood that it would give an unfair advantage to the Greens.” The procedure of vote-counting done by the AEC proceeds as follows :
(i) The AEC selects candidates with more than one quota (14.3%), i.e. usually the first five senators elected are from the major parties, ALP and Lib/Nats;
(ii) The sixth seat depends on the allocation of preferences, and it is “up for grabs”.
(iii) The AEC eliminates candidates with the lowest number of votes and distributes their preferences (if any) on those ballot papers to other candidates;
(iv) But if you numbered 1 to only 6, then your vote lacks 7,8,9,10 etc preferences to flow on to build up a rival to overtake the Green sitting there with 0.63 of a quota, and therefore many votes ‘exhaust’ i.e. have no further influence on the outcome.
Therefore the Greens often end up winning the final Senate seat with only 0.63 of a quota, and you, numbering 1 to only 6, have, without you realising it, helped them to get there.
Stewart notes that in the 2016 election, the Greens got 8.7% of the votes but 12% of the senators and in the 2019 election, the Greens got 10% of the votes, but 15% of the senators.
“If you want your Senate vote to not favour the Greens, then please number ever square above the line, putting the Greens last,” he says. “Or if you number squares below the line, then number more than 12, putting a number in every column, with the number in the Greens column being the last number.
“Strictly speaking the new Senate voting method does not favour the Greens by name, but the mathematics of the voting method favours, for the sixth Senate seat, a “medium” Party, i.e. one which gets about two-thirds of a quota.
“Major parties get above two quotas (28%), while minor parties get less than half a quota. Usually the Greens are the only medium party.”
Lex Stewart, Psephologist stewart.lex@gmail.com
