Is the US Dollar Close to a Crash?
Political commentator Jamie McIntyre predicts the timeframe for the decline of the US dollar’s global dominance has shortened dramatically
By Jamie McIntyre | Australian National Review
Political commentator Jamie McIntyre has dramatically shortened his predicted timeframe for the erosion of the United States dollar’s dominance as the world’s principal reserve currency, warning that a transition once expected to take between 10 and 20 years could now unfold within five years—and potentially begin within months.
McIntyre argues that the Iran–Israel–United States conflict, the continuing disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the expansion of BRICS and Washington’s increasing reliance on sanctions have accelerated a historic restructuring of the international monetary system.
“The timeframe has shortened dramatically,” McIntyre said. “What I previously believed could take 10, 15 or 20 years may now happen within months to five years. The dollar will not necessarily disappear, but its privileged position—and America’s ability to exploit that position without consequence—is under unprecedented pressure.”
Iran conflict exposes a changing balance of power
Iran has emerged from the conflict in a far stronger strategic position than many Western governments anticipated, McIntyre argues.
Iranian authorities claim to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States and Iran continue to make competing claims concerning military and commercial control of the passage. Negotiations have reportedly considered arrangements that would give Tehran authority over inbound shipping—an outcome that would represent a significant shift in regional power towards Iran.
Whatever view is taken of competing claims that Iran has “won” the war, McIntyre says Tehran has demonstrated that it cannot easily be subdued by American and Israeli military power.
“Iran has survived an enormous military campaign, inflicted serious costs on its opponents and established itself as a power that cannot simply be ordered around,” he said.
“Israel is no longer able to assume uncontested regional military dominance, while the United States has again discovered the limitations of attempting to impose political outcomes through bombing, blockades and sanctions.”
McIntyre rejects the idea that the world must remain subject to any single dominant power—whether the United States, China, Israel or another state.
“The majority of humanity does not want a centralised global surveillance system controlled by one government or one military alliance,” he said. “A genuinely multipolar world, in which sovereign countries cooperate without answering to a single imperial centre, is increasingly attractive across Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.”
Sanctions are encouraging countries to abandon the dollar
According to McIntyre, Washington has repeatedly treated access to the dollar-based financial system as a geopolitical weapon.
Russia, Iran and North Korea have faced extensive sanctions, while China and numerous other countries have confronted tariffs, financial restrictions or threats of secondary sanctions. These measures may cause immediate economic damage, but they also give targeted countries a powerful incentive to construct financial systems beyond Washington’s control.
“The United States has weaponised the dollar so aggressively that it is teaching the rest of the world how dangerous dependence on the dollar can be,” McIntyre said.
“Every frozen reserve, blocked transaction and threatened secondary sanction sends the same message: develop alternative payment systems, hold more gold and settle trade in your own currencies.”
BRICS has supported greater use of national currencies, cross-border payment interoperability and local-currency financing. Although it has not created a common reserve currency, its members are gradually building mechanisms designed to reduce their exposure to dollar-based settlement.
McIntyre believes energy trading will be decisive. If a growing proportion of oil, gas, minerals and manufactured goods is priced and settled in yuan, rupees, roubles, reals, dirhams or other currencies, international demand for dollars could weaken substantially.
“The petrodollar system has been one of the foundations of American financial power,” he said. “Once major energy producers no longer need to sell predominantly in dollars, a critical pillar supporting dollar demand begins to fracture.”
The dollar remains dominant—but its long-term share has fallen
McIntyre acknowledged that the dollar has not yet lost its position as the world’s leading reserve currency.
International Monetary Fund figures show that the dollar represented approximately 57.13 per cent of allocated global foreign-exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2026. Its share increased slightly during that particular quarter, although it remains well below the level of more than 70 per cent recorded in the late 1990s.
This means predictions of an immediate dollar collapse should not be presented as established fact. The United States still possesses deep capital markets, a massive economy and a currency used extensively in trade, debt issuance and global banking.
McIntyre nevertheless argues that reserve-currency changes do not always proceed in a straight line. A system can appear stable until governments, central banks and major trading blocs collectively conclude that the existing structure has become politically or financially unsafe.
“The dollar’s percentage of reserves could remain stable for several quarters while the infrastructure necessary to bypass it is being constructed underneath,” he said.
“The critical issue is not one quarterly movement. It is the direction of policy among countries representing a growing share of the world’s population, energy production, manufacturing and economic output.”
America passes US$40 trillion in debt
The warning comes as total outstanding United States public debt has passed US$40 trillion. Treasury figures reportedly placed the total at approximately US$40.047 trillion on August 18, including about US$32.266 trillion held by the public and US$7.782 trillion in intragovernmental holdings.
Reserve-currency status has historically enabled Washington to borrow more cheaply and in greater quantities than would otherwise be possible. Persistent international demand for dollars and Treasury securities has helped finance American deficits, overseas military deployments and repeated wars.
McIntyre argues that any substantial decline in overseas demand for dollars and Treasury debt could force the United States to offer higher interest rates, reduce expenditure, raise taxes or permit further currency debasement.
“If the world becomes less willing to finance Washington, the cost of servicing US$40 trillion in debt becomes increasingly dangerous,” he said.
“The United States cannot indefinitely borrow at an extraordinary scale, expand its military commitments and assume that foreign governments will always recycle their trading surpluses into American debt.”
“The printing press is breaking”
McIntyre is a longstanding critic of the Federal Reserve system and the creation of money through central-bank and commercial-bank credit.
He argues that the present system allows money unsupported by tangible assets to be created and lent to governments, leaving taxpayers responsible for servicing an expanding debt burden through income and other taxes.
“This arrangement enabled Washington to build the largest military machine in history, finance allied military operations and engage in war after war without immediately asking its citizens to pay the full cost,” McIntyre said.
“It also enabled financial institutions and dollar-rich corporations to acquire assets throughout the world using currency created within a system controlled from the United States.”
McIntyre said that description should not be interpreted as meaning the Federal Reserve can literally print unlimited money without consequences. Inflation, interest costs, exchange rates and confidence impose real constraints. His argument is that those constraints are now becoming considerably more severe.
“The printing press that sustained the empire is breaking—not because the machinery has stopped, but because the rest of the world is becoming less willing to accept what it produces,” he said.
The possible end of the American empire
McIntyre predicts that declining monetary dominance could eventually force the United States to retreat from its network of military commitments and overseas interventions.
That would not necessarily mean the collapse of American society or the disappearance of the dollar. It could instead mean the end of the United States as an uncontested financial and military empire.
“The American people are not the enemy,” McIntyre said. “They have often paid the highest price for decisions made by political, military and financial elites. A less imperial United States could ultimately become a more sustainable and peaceful nation.”
“The real collapse would be the collapse of a system that allows a small group of bankers, defence interests and political insiders to create debt, socialise its cost and use it to project power across the world.”
McIntyre’s prediction is deliberately more aggressive than the prevailing institutional view. Economists continue to point to the absence of a single alternative offering the dollar’s liquidity, convertibility and enormous supply of investable assets.
However, McIntyre believes that analysis overlooks the possibility that the dollar will not be replaced by one new global currency. Instead, the world may move towards a decentralised system involving multiple reserve currencies, bilateral settlement arrangements, gold, commodities and new payment networks.
“The question is no longer whether the world will move towards a more multipolar financial system,” McIntyre concluded.
“The question is how quickly it will happen—and whether Washington recognises the change before its debt, military overreach and reliance on financial coercion bring the American empire to an end far sooner than its leaders ever imagined.”
This article presents Jamie McIntyre’s political and economic analysis and predictions. Statements concerning the outcome of the Iran conflict and the future of the dollar remain matters of opinion and continuing international debate.
