From British American Tobacco
Last week’s Federal Budget laid bare the scale of the Albanese Government’s failure on illicit tobacco, with collapsing excise revenue and an enforcement response completely out of step with the crisis unfolding across the country.
Budget papers revealed Treasury now expects tobacco excise revenue to collapse to just $2.1 billion by 2029-30 – the lowest collection this century – despite originally forecasting $16.8 billion over the same period. Public reporting also revealed a projected $77 billion excise shortfall across the forward estimates.
At the same time, the Government continues insisting enforcement is the answer while allocating just $14 million across all states and territories for illicit tobacco enforcement – approximately $1.75 million each.
That is not a serious response to a black market now estimated to be worth around $10 billion annually and linked to more than 285 firebombings nationwide.
Even more concerning, the Government’s own Budget papers concede this additional funding is only expected to result in a “small but unquantifiable increase” in tobacco excise revenue.
After years of escalating violence, collapsing revenue and repeated warnings from law enforcement, retailers and us, the Government is now effectively admitting its enforcement-only strategy is unlikely to regain any control of the illicit market.
For years, through countless parliamentary inquiries, industry submissions and stakeholder consultations, we have repeatedly warned that the higher tobacco excise climbed, the greater the incentive for organised crime to move into the market.
Those warnings were ignored.
The Australian Border Force has also warned enforcement alone cannot solve the problem while strong consumer demand driven by price continues fuelling illicit tobacco
As the Senate inquiry continues its examination into the illicit tobacco crisis again today, the Federal Government must explain how Australians are expected to have confidence in a strategy it is barely funding, openly acknowledging is unlikely to work, and which continues to hand billions of dollars to organised crime while stripping billions more from taxpayers and government revenue.
Meanwhile a large quantity of illicit tobacco was seized from mail sources in the Northern Territory last week.
The Australian Border Force (ABF) has disrupted the supply of illicit tobacco following targeted warrant activity under Operation GOALFENCE, seizing more than 100,000 cigarettes and 39 kilograms of loose‑leaf tobacco from the international mail stream.
Operation GOALFENCE is an intelligence‑led disruption campaign focused on identifying and seizing illicit tobacco before it reaches the community and the black market, supporting the broader objectives of Operation PRINTWALL.
On 13 May 2026, ABF Regional Investigations Northern Territory executed Customs Act 1901 warrants relating to multiple consignments identified through intelligence‑driven targeting within the international mail stream.
As a result of the activity, ABF officers located and seized 103,600 illicitly imported cigarettes and 39 kilograms of illicit loose‑leaf tobacco.
The seized tobacco represents approximately $193,860 in duty evaded and an estimated $150,400 in potential proceeds of crime if sold within the community.
ABF Commander Graeme Campbell said the result demonstrated the ABF’s ongoing focus on disrupting illicit tobacco supply chains.
“Illicit tobacco trade harms legitimate retailers, distorts the market and generates significant profits for criminal groups operating outside the law,” Commander Campbell said.
“Operation GOALFENCE is targeting vulnerabilities in the supply chain, including the misuse of the mail stream to move illicit tobacco into Australian communities.
“These detections in the Northern Territory demonstrate the ABF’s ability to identify and disrupt illicit imports, regardless of the concealment method used.”
