Ray Dalio warns ‘we’re heading into very, very dark times’ and says the solution comes from a Chinese proverb: ‘A smart rabbit has 3 holes’
Legendary billionaire investor Ray Dalio has issued a stark warning about the future of the United States and the United Kingdom, stating he is not optimistic about either nation’s trajectory and believes “we’re heading into very, very dark times.” Drawing on his own proprietary study of 500 years of history, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, points to a predictable 80-year cycle that suggests an era of significant global and internal strife is upon us.
Dalio’s framework is built on five major forces that drive history in cycles: a money and debt force, internal conflict, geopolitical conflict, acts of nature, and human inventiveness, particularly technology. He argues that both the U.S. and the U.K. are exhibiting clear symptoms of a cycle nearing a dangerous phase.
“The U.K. has a financial problem, the government has a debt problem,” Dalio explained in an appearance on the “Diary of a CEO” podcast, noting that when debts rise relative to income, it squeezes the economy. This financial strain is connected to the second force: intense internal conflict. With large wealth and opportunity gaps, societies are experiencing deep divisions between the left and right, leading to a loss of trust in the system. Dalio believes the U.K. also lacks the culture of inventiveness and the robust capital markets seen in the U.S., further hindering its prospects.
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The small-business hiring engine is sputtering. That’s a red flag for the economy.
Without small businesses and their hiring, already precarious economic growth could be prone to a pullback
The percentage of small businesses with unfilled job openings fell to 32% in August from the month before, hitting its lowest level since July 2020.
Main Street businesses — known for jobs that you can stick with through thick or thin — are no longer leading U.S. jobs growth. That’s a worrying sign for the labor market’s overall health.
The percentage of small businesses with unfilled job openings fell to 32% in August from the month before, hitting its lowest level since July 2020, according to the National Federation of Independent Business monthly survey. That’s troubling because robust small-business hiring has contributed to more than half of the U.S. economy’s jobs creation in recent years.
Fresh Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey data paints a similarly concerning picture. In June and July, the number of workers at small businesses (fewer than 250 employees) hired over the ones who were laid off or quit has lagged their bigger peers. The last time that happened for two straight months was in May 2020, according to Fundstrat macro data scientist Max Motz’s analysis.
